,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Name: ______________________________
POSC 301 Political Research I
Homework #8 – Regression Analyses
This homework assignment covers using bivariate crosstabulations to test simple hypotheses. You will use the GlobalData SPSS file.
1.
2.
Getting Started in SPSS
A
If you are working off-campus, you must first download and install the Virtual Workstation plug-in. Most on-campus computers
already have the plug-in installed. If the plug-in is already installed, go to Step B below.
1. Go to the Towson University web site (www.towson.edu/ots)
2. in the Search Towson window, type Virtual Workspace and press enter
3. Click on the link for Virtual Workspace and follow the instructions for your type of computer or device. If you have
problems loading or running Virtual Workspace, contact Student Computing Services (401-704-5151) or go to Cook
Library Room 35 with your computer.
B.
To Access SPSS with Virtual Workspace
1 Start your browser
2 On Campus: Click on the Windows START button and type SPSS in the Search Programs and Files window
3 Off Campus:
a. Go to Virtual Workspace https://virtualworkspace.towson.edu/Citrix/XenApp/auth/logon.asp
b. Login with your TU NetID
c. Select SPSS
C.
Close the two dialog boxes that open when SPSS loads.
D.
Open the file for this homework assignment by clicking
File
Open
Data
In the File Name box: \cla-server2roberts and click Open
Select the INTERNATIONAL folder
Select the file GlobalData.sav
E.
Before you get started with the questions below, you should set options that control how SPSS lists variables:
Edit
Options
Under Variable Lists click Display Names and Alphabetical
OK and then click OK to close the dialog box that appears about changing variable names
What Affects Persistent Underdevelopment?
In January 1961, the United Nations declared that the decade of the 1960’s would be the “Development Decade.” The goal was to
increase economic development substantially by 1970. As the decade ended, the United Nations realized that it would take more
than 10 years to increase development. Indeed, UN Development Decades were declared the 1970’s, the 1980’s and the 1990’s.
As the new century approached, the UN switched to the Millennium Development Goals. This constant reassessment of the UN’s
development goals indicates the persistent problem with economic development. In many countries over 50 years of intense
programs to reduce poverty and stimulate development has resulted in little real changes in people’s lives.
Since 1990, the UN Development Program (UNDP) tracked these programs with its annual Human Development Report. The
centerpiece of this report has been tracking changes in development through the Human Development Index (HDI). The HDI is a
composite index made of four variables:
Live expectancy from birth in years
Mean years of schooling
Expected years of schooling (mean number of years from first grade that a student is likely to complete)
Gross National Income per capita.
Your task in this homework assignment is to develop the best model that explains HDI with the fewest independent variables. You
will use the GlobalData.sav SPSS file that is available on the CLA server. The variables that you can use to build your model are
listed on the next page.
Dependent Variable
HUMDEV02
Human Development Index, 2002. Higher score = more developed. (HDR, 2004)
Independent Variables
Aid_pct
Aid as a percentage of central government expenditures
Educspend
Average annual percentage of central government expenditure allocated to education, 1992-2004
Exp_gdp
Exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP. (WDI, 2005)
FDInet
Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP). (WDI, 2005)
Food_Avail
Food availability. Dietary energy supply (DES) as calories per day per person, 2000-2002. (FAO, 2005)
Healthspend
Average annual percentage of central government expenditure allocated to health, 1992-2004.
Indgrow
Industrial Production Growth Rate (TWF 1997)
Multi_Cult
Multi-culturalism: ODDS that any two persons will differ in their race, religion, ethnicity, or language group.
Popgrow95
Average annual population growth rate, 1995-2000 (UNSTATS, 2006)
To complete this assignment, you need to do the following:
1. Select an independent variable from the above list that you think will help explain variations in HDI from country to
country.
2. Write a short justification for why you think that variable affects human development
3. Run a regression analysis in SPSS by selecting HUMDEV02 as the dependent variable and adding the independent
variable you chose to the list of independent variable. Instructions on how to set up the regression analysis in SPSS are
given below.
4. Fill in the output information on your analysis using the grids below.
5. Decide whether to keep the variable in your model or not. If the variable does not improve your model, you can remove it
and try another. For each variable you try, you must complete step 2
6. Repeat steps 1 through 5 for the next variable. Continue until you have a model that you feel best explains HDI. You
may never have more than 4 independent variables in your model at the same time.
In SPSS
Analyze
Regression Analysis
Linear
Select HUMDEV02 and use the arrow to move it to the window for the Dependent Variable
Select Your Independent Variable and use the arrow to add it to the window for the Independent Variable
You can choose an independent variable to remove from the analysis too, if you wish.
OK
Use the SPSS output for this analysis to complete the grid below
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
Standard
Error
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Standard
Error
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
Standard
Error
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Standard
Error
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
Standard
Error
R-Squared Value:
F-Test Value:
F-Test Probability:
For Each Independent Variable in the Model:
Variable Names
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Standard
Error
Standardized
Beta
t-Statistic
Significance
(Constant)
Variable 1 Name:
Variable 2 Name:
Variable 3 Name:
Variable 4 Name:
Justify the independent variable that you are adding in this step:
Discuss the results of this version of your model:
3.
Write a short paragraph that discusses the outcome of your model. What does it say? What does your model say about
what affects persistent underdevelopment?
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